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Since time immortal, among the favorite pastimes of sport freaks has been gambling. Gambling is exciting, taking into consideration the risk involved, the luck factor as well as the chance to make a lot of money in a couple of hours. Online gambling is now popular with millions of men and women world wide, with more visiting betting sites and online casinos popping up online than previously. One great advantage of having this facility online is of course, that it is accessible from any place which has an active internet access. This has made gambling a sport in itself, available to millions of new people.

There is a boom within the online betting industry as well as the sort of profits many sites are enjoying now is unimaginable. Online casinos are not to be left behind, as there is a rapid explosion of these as well. In fact, online poker gives gambling, a glamour quotient by roping in celebrities for high profile tournaments. This implies reaching out to a whole new market in itself.

But of course, the most successful story will be the rise of sports betting. Fans that have enjoyed betting on games like soccer, football, polo, baseball, hockey and horse racing, can now do so online with the help of these sites. A whole new variety of sporting events are cropping up to encourage the already soaring popularity of online betting. It may be correct to state that audiences are now enjoying the betting experience without being at the field themselves. Welcome to the world of virtual reality.

You will find innumerable so-called gambling experts ready to dish out information of their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I will not do that. I will simply give you information regarding bookmakers, odds and gambling that you should use (or forget) when you see fit.

The first thing to mention is the fact that the majority of folks who engage in gambling will be net losers over time. This is the very reason you can find numerous bookmakers making so much cash throughout the world.

While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, by way of example if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they set up markets that incorporate a margin, so they’re going to always generate a profit over the medium to long-term, if not the short term. That’s, as long as they got their sums right.

When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models based upon data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. As always, if sport was 100% predictable, it will soon lose its appeal, and as the bookies tend to be spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they may be sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.

Just look at any sport and also you will find an occasion in the event the underdog triumphs against all of the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, by way of example, or even the United States beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey within the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a decent wedge.

The big bookmakers spend a whole lot of time and money ensuring they have the right odds that ensure they think about the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra tiny bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability will be 2/1. That is, two to one against that event occurring.

Alternatively, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they can set the odds at, say, 6/4. Within this way they have built-in the margin that ensures, over time, they’re going to profit from people betting on this selection. It’s the same concept as a casino roulette.

Now how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but far from impossible.

One of the ways is to get good at mathematical modelling and setup a model that takes under consideration as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this tactic is that however complex the model, and however all encompassing it seems, it can never account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it’s as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Furthermore, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.

Alternatively you can find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events which make them the most money, generally found to be playing football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work with one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds may have additional information than you.

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