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Smart sports betting, and football betting primarily, is depending on the skills of the teams involved in contrast to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is exactly what makes a highly effective sports bettor.

Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and also are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. However, sports betting – and Recommended Studying also poker – is just not according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. Therefore the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.

Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer an effective means of betting. In the long run, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that specific results are “due” based on previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. For example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that therefore tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, actually, the chances that the next coin toss will cause tails is precisely the same no matter the number of times heads has come up already.

In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most comprehension of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor that’s hoping that the desired outcome “is due” based on probabilities. There’s absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football-team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The major point for these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.

Which is not to state that random chance is not involved, of course it is. Any team can make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Nonetheless the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question is a lot more more likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This really is what makes a successful sports bettor over time. Anyone can get lucky on occasion, but if one learns to make intelligent bets in line with the skills of the teams involved, one is a lot more very likely to win significant amounts of money over the long haul.

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