Quality Online Football Casino 3426287529

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As nearly all professional bettor will tell you, backing heavy favourites is a sure fire way to the poorhouse. That’s common knowledge, right? Perhaps, fantastic online football gambling but there’s one problem with that sort of thinking: it’s dead wrong.

The received wisdom will be the linesmakers skew their odds on heavy favourites since the public love betting on the best teams. The bookies without doubt see a flurry of parlays involving clubs like Chelsea, Barcelona and Juventus every weekend. Surely there’s value in taking the underdog in these situations, isn’t there?

Actually, numerous studies have shown that blindly backing long shots is a losing proposition in the long term. To view why that’s the case, we have to discover how a bookmaker operates. Considering that the bookies take most of their action on short-priced favourites, it’s often assumed they can be exposed to big liabilities if all of the hot teams win. Even though this is sometimes the situation, and several bookmakers suffer months of huge losses, you’ll find several ways a bookie can protect himself.

It is important to remember that most heavy favourites are combined in parlays involving at least three teams. A bookmaker only needs one loser to take his customer’s money. As such, there’s little need to lower the odds on a “public” team. Many sportsbooks will even inflate the odds of a hot favourite to attract new customers, safe in the knowledge that parlay players won’t hurt their bottom line.

Should the favourite’s odds are an accurate reflection of it’s true probability of winning, the bookmaker must make adjustments elsewhere. That usually means offering worse odds on the underdog and the draw. Knowing the concept of theoretical hold can make this clearer.

When building lines, a sportsbook shall offer odds on each team that provide it a slight edge, ensuring a profit regardless of how the game turns out. This is called the Theoretical Hold and is expressed as a portion. It represents the combined amount of customers’ bets that the bookmaker expects to keep.

It’s called theoretical because in reality a bookmaker rarely has balanced action on all sides. If a bookie takes the bulk of his bets on a heavy favourite, he can offer it at a far more generous price and accept a smaller profit margin. Short-priced favourites generally have small margins, but high volumes. Bigger odds mean bigger margins. There is little incentive for a bookie to offer competitive odds on a big underdog if he does not expect much betting interest in that team.

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