Online Football Agent Facts 189659941235262

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Smart sports betting, and football betting specifically, is depending on the skills of the teams involved rather than random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is exactly what makes a highly effective sports bettor.

Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and also are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. Conversely, sports betting – and also poker – just isn’t according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. Consequently the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.

Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. Within the long run, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that specific results are “due” based on previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. One example is the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that it indicates tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, actually, the chances that the next coin toss will end in tails is exactly the same irrespective of the number of times heads has come up already.

In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most knowledge of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” determined by probabilities. There is absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The critical element of such runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.

That is not to claim that random chance is just not involved, of course it is. Any team could make mistakes or good online casino have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Even so the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question will be much more very likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor over time. Anyone can get lucky on occasion, but if one learns to make intelligent bets in line with the skills of the teams involved, one is a lot more prone to win significant amounts of money over the long haul.

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